The study has utilized heuristic reasoning and the concept of Fuzzy Decision Variables in order to undertake the risk analysis of a proposed construction project in a selected domain The objectives included determining the sources of risks, obtaining the Fuzzy Decision Variables by deductive reasoning, identifying the types of risks prevailing in the project and the utilization of fuzzy set analysis in order to estimate the possible magnitudes of the risks. Five completed projects were analysed. For each project , a breakdown of the final contract sum into variations, remeasurement of provisional quantities, nominated subcontractors’ accounts, nominated suppliers’ accounts, loss and expense caused by disturbances of regular progress of the works, fluctuation in rates of labour and prices of materials was undertaken in order to derive the sources of risks, the Fuzzy Decision Variables and the subsequent risks. Fuzzy set analysis was used to calculate the possible magnitudes of the risks. Heuristic reasoning and fuzzy set analysis could be used in a composite framework to undertake the risk analysis of a proposed project in a selected domain.
Heuristic reasoning, Fuzzy Decision Variables, risk and fuzzy set analysis
This paper presents a novel methodology for automatically extracting pragmatic markers from large streams of texts and repositories of documents. Pragmatic markers typically are implications, innuendos, suggestions, contradictions, sarcasms or references that are difficult to define objectively, but that are subjectively evident.
Our methodology uses a two-stage augmented learning model applied to a specific use case, extracting from a repository of over 1500 Article IV country reports prepared for government officials by International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff. The model uses principles of evidence theory to train a machine to decipher the textual patterns of suggested actions for government officials and to extract those suggestions from the country reports at scale.
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the model with impressive precision and recall metrics that over time outperform even the human trainers
Natural Language Understanding, Augmented Intelligence, Pragmatics, Text Processing